The takeover of American-made weapons by the Taliban could lead to the emergence of a regional arms market.
The Taliban have taken control of billions of dollars in US-made weapons and equipment, including small arms, Hummers, vans, planes and drones, after negotiating the surrender of entire units of the Afghan army the week before.
Amid the turmoil, however, U.S. officials are unsure how much equipment the Taliban have stolen and how much is unused at bases and tiny military posts across the country. Concerns about a regional arms bazaar that could benefit terrorist groups and insurgents have arisen due to uncertainty surrounding the status of the massive arsenal.
"What we are seeing today is that these weapons, once in the hands of the Taliban, are likely to circulate in the region for decades," said Niels Duquet, acting director of the Flemish Institute for Peace. . "They are very important at this point [because] you need small arms to control the area."
Photos of Taliban militants posing in front of hijacked helicopters and light attack jets that swept the world over the past week have further embarrassed the former Afghan and US governments. However, those who have long followed extremism are more worried about the increase in the number of weapons, ammunition and grenades than these photos.
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“I have no doubt that some of this equipment will end up in the hands of Al Qaeda and other attackers; it's inevitable, ”said Colin Clark, director of strategy and research at The Soufan Group. "It won't stop when the Taliban leave."
Usually when groups like the Taliban have sixteen small arms, Clarke said, there isn't a lot of buying or selling, at least not at first. It is unclear, however, how many crates of guns and ammunition are left unattended, or how desperately the Taliban are trying to take control of the country.
According to Guy Lamb, director of the Security and Violence Initiative at the University of Cape Town, this poses a serious threat to the security of countries bordering Afghanistan, as weapons can easily be sold to militias both nationally and in regions like Pakistan.
“In such cases, the arms dealers will declare themselves [and] offer money or valuable goods in exchange for such weapons,” Lamb explained.
The amount of military aid provided by the United States over the past two decades is enormous, with $ 83 billion spent on training and equipping an army that has finally melted away after years of catastrophic military losses. .
According to a 2017 Government Accountability Office study, the United States has since provided Afghan forces with at least 600,000 small arms, including M-16 and M-4 rifles, 76,000 vehicles, 16,000 night vision goggles, 162 000 radios and other communication equipment. 2003 r.
According to a 2020 report by the Special Inspector General for the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, the United States dispatched an additional 4,700 Humvee, 20,000 hand grenades and thousands of small arms and grenade launchers over the course of the three-year period from 2017 to 2019.
Thousands of rifles and other equipment disappeared soon after being sent to units in the field, according to monitoring groups such as SIGAR, and the Taliban have long bragged about American equipment they had put the spotlight on. main, including special operations. small arms and night vision goggles. However, they were still few in number.
A major seizure over the past week, which includes artillery and mortar systems, will give the Taliban a significant advantage against all forces trying to counter the Taliban regime, including the already emerging coalition of militias in the north.
However, without a working mechanism for repair and maintenance, the usefulness of the apparatus may be limited.
According to Justine Fleischner of Conflict Armament Research, an arms trafficking analysis group, "the Taliban will likely be able to keep Russian-made equipment operational indefinitely," while spare parts for American-made weapons will be soon exhausted, if at all.
Given the chaotic situation on the ground and the many local links between these groups, she continued, there is a "high probability" that some of the abandoned material has already fallen into the hands of al- Qaeda and ISIS forces.
The US administration is trying to compile a catalog of all the equipment returned by the retreating forces, including how much was in working order when the rebels recaptured it.
"Obviously, we don't have a complete picture of where all the defense equipment has gone," White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters. "Of course, a lot of it ended up in the hands of the Taliban."
However, most of the more modern equipment, such as airplanes and communications equipment, is at risk of breaking down within a few months. Without tens of thousands of foreign contractors, the Afghan army and air force would not be able to maintain their planes and much of their fleet of vehicles.
In the short term, the Taliban is unlikely to be able to operate any of the hijacked planes, and given the difficulty of repairing them, the A-29 attack jets and Black Hawk helicopters are likely to have a short time. lifespan if they are not connected to a global supply chain. funded by the United States. Afghan pilots escaping capture by the Taliban sent dozens of A-29 planes and helicopters to Uzbekistan over the weekend. We don't know what will happen to these planes.
The Taliban's main job is to have access to the right caliber of ammunition, but once they run out of millions of American guns, they can buy more on the open market.
“The Taliban have extensive experience with a wide range of US-made equipment, including heavy machine guns, mortars, howitzers and Humvees,” said Robert Mugga, director of the SecDev group. “After all, for two decades they have been buying them, stealing them and capturing them from ANDSF forces. "
Between April and July 2021, the United States supplied the ANDSF with approximately 1,000 2.75-inch rockets, 61,000 40mm explosive rounds, 900,000 rounds with 50 rounds and over 2 million rounds 7.62 .
Amid the turmoil, however, U.S. officials are unsure how much equipment the Taliban have stolen and how much is unused at bases and tiny military posts across the country. Concerns about a regional arms bazaar that could benefit terrorist groups and insurgents have arisen due to uncertainty surrounding the status of the massive arsenal.
"What we are seeing today is that these weapons, once in the hands of the Taliban, are likely to circulate in the region for decades," said Niels Duquet, acting director of the Flemish Institute for Peace. . "They are very important at this point [because] you need small arms to control the area."
Photos of Taliban militants posing in front of hijacked helicopters and light attack jets that swept the world over the past week have further embarrassed the former Afghan and US governments. However, those who have long followed extremism are more worried about the increase in the number of weapons, ammunition and grenades than these photos.
“I have no doubt that some of this equipment will end up in the hands of Al Qaeda and other attackers; it's inevitable, ”said Colin Clark, director of strategy and research at The Soufan Group. "It won't stop when the Taliban leave."
Usually when groups like the Taliban have sixteen small arms, Clarke said, there isn't a lot of buying or selling, at least not at first. It is unclear, however, how many crates of guns and ammunition are left unattended, or how desperately the Taliban are trying to take control of the country.
According to Guy Lamb, director of the Security and Violence Initiative at the University of Cape Town, this poses a serious threat to the security of countries bordering Afghanistan, as weapons can easily be sold to militias both nationally and in regions like Pakistan.
“In such cases, the arms dealers will declare themselves [and] offer money or valuable goods in exchange for such weapons,” Lamb explained.
The amount of military aid provided by the United States over the past two decades is enormous, with $ 83 billion spent on training and equipping an army that has finally melted away after years of catastrophic military losses. .
According to a 2017 Government Accountability Office study, the United States has since provided Afghan forces with at least 600,000 small arms, including M-16 and M-4 rifles, 76,000 vehicles, 16,000 night vision goggles, 162 000 radios and other communication equipment. 2003 r.
According to a 2020 report by the Special Inspector General for the Reconstruction of Afghanistan, the United States dispatched an additional 4,700 Humvee, 20,000 hand grenades and thousands of small arms and grenade launchers over the course of the three-year period from 2017 to 2019.
Thousands of rifles and other equipment disappeared soon after being sent to units in the field, according to monitoring groups such as SIGAR, and the Taliban have long bragged about American equipment they had put the spotlight on. main, including special operations. small arms and night vision goggles. However, they were still few in number.
A major seizure over the past week, which includes artillery and mortar systems, will give the Taliban a significant advantage against all forces trying to counter the Taliban regime, including the already emerging coalition of militias in the north.
However, without a working mechanism for repair and maintenance, the usefulness of the apparatus may be limited.
According to Justine Fleischner of Conflict Armament Research, an arms trafficking analysis group, "the Taliban will likely be able to keep Russian-made equipment operational indefinitely," while spare parts for American-made weapons will be soon exhausted, if at all.
Given the chaotic situation on the ground and the many local links between these groups, she continued, there is a "high probability" that some of the abandoned material has already fallen into the hands of al- Qaeda and ISIS forces.
The US administration is trying to compile a catalog of all the equipment returned by the retreating forces, including how much was in working order when the rebels recaptured it.
"Obviously, we don't have a complete picture of where all the defense equipment has gone," White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters. "Of course, a lot of it ended up in the hands of the Taliban."
However, most of the more modern equipment, such as airplanes and communications equipment, is at risk of breaking down within a few months. Without tens of thousands of foreign contractors, the Afghan army and air force would not be able to maintain their planes and much of their fleet of vehicles.
In the short term, the Taliban is unlikely to be able to operate any of the hijacked planes, and given the difficulty of repairing them, the A-29 attack jets and Black Hawk helicopters are likely to have a short time. lifespan if they are not connected to a global supply chain. funded by the United States. Afghan pilots escaping capture by the Taliban sent dozens of A-29 planes and helicopters to Uzbekistan over the weekend. We don't know what will happen to these planes.
The Taliban's main job is to have access to the right caliber of ammunition, but once they run out of millions of American guns, they can buy more on the open market.
“The Taliban have extensive experience with a wide range of US-made equipment, including heavy machine guns, mortars, howitzers and Humvees,” said Robert Mugga, director of the SecDev group. “After all, for two decades they have been buying them, stealing them and capturing them from ANDSF forces. "
Between April and July 2021, the United States supplied the ANDSF with approximately 1,000 2.75-inch rockets, 61,000 40mm explosive rounds, 900,000 rounds with 50 rounds and over 2 million rounds 7.62 .
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